2008 World Indoor Champs: Inside the Men's 3K

Story by Eric

The 2008 IAAF World Indoor Championships were exciting on several fronts, with athletes mentioned in previous stories on this site gaining more than their fair share of headlines both here and in other international press.

Today's meet reflection looks at the men's 3.000m, and one particular athlete's struggle to gain solid footing on his own. He's chased titles, shadows and respect for far too long. His victory in Valencia may have pushed him over the top, and provided him his own stature and name in a sport littered with stars, and in a family where one man has won world cross country titles, junior cross country titles, world championships, an Olympic gold medal, and has set world records indoors and outdoors.

That man, though only 19, is known as Tariku Bekele, and he may become the first one thinks of when the surname Bekele is said if he can carry his momentum forward and challenge the rest of the world outdoors like he did indoors this season, when, at the week-end, he knocked off the 2007 World Champion at the steeplechase (Paul Koech), and a 3.48 miler in Australian Craig Mottram among others in Spain.

Sit back, take down some notes, and learn as much as you can from this rich information digested from the men's 3.000m race.

Men's 3.000M

Tariku Bekele had long been in his brother's shadows since the start of his career on the youth and junior levels, and had also been overshadowed this season when Kenenisa broke countryman and mentor Haile Gebrselassie's world indoor record in the 2-mile, running 8.04,35 in Birmingham.

It didn't matter that the younger sibling had chased his elder brother out of the national junior ranks at the 3.000m outdoors, his brother's mark was one which set a world standard, whilst Tariku Bekele's was a national one.

Nor did it matter that he had played pace-maker to several world record attempts Kenenisa Bekele made at 5.000m, Tariku Bekele's name did not stand next to any world records as did his brother's.

Finally, as 3.000m races go, the best Kenenisa Bekele had accomplished at a major championship as a junior was winning the 1999 World Youth Games silver medallist. Tariku Bekele, running in his brother's long, extended shadow, also captured a silver medal, collecting his hardware four years later in Sherbrooke.

Tariku Bekele's victory in Valencia changed a bit of luck for the young star, however, and provided him with several distinctions to go along with the $40.000 he pocketed for his victory.

Key observations from the race:

• Though Tariku Bekele was unable to claim the fastest mark in the family indoors at 3.000m - he trails his brother by 0,58 seconds, he was able to step into new territory this winter by running the fastest time in the world this season (7.31,09) in Stuttgart, and by running faster on paper than his brother, Kenenisa Bekele - a multiple world-indoor and outdoor record holder - though Kenenisa Bekeke's 3.000m time during his record 2-mile was "worth" more than his absolute best of 7.30,51.
• And, equally important to Tariku Bekele was that he able to win a major championship - something which had eluded the "other Bekele" on previous occasion as he played second-fiddle to his older brother.
• Tariku Bekele, by winning the World Indoor Championships at the ripe old age of 21 years, 48 days, became the youngest male indoor titlest of the previous 12 men who'd claimed the world crown at 3.000m, and brought to five the number of titles Ethiopian men have won at this distance indoors.
• Gebrselassie won three titles (1997, 1999 and 2003), and Kenenisa Bekele's victory in 2006 brought back the bragging rights to Ethiopia following Bernard Lagat's 2004 victory. The Bekele brothers have made it two-straight for their country, and two-consecutive for their family.
• Though Gebrselassie found previous success indoors during his career, winning back-to-back titles in 1997 and 1999, no athlete this century has defended their title in the five races contested through last week-end. This has been due to none of the previous defenders (Hicham El Guerrouj, Gebrselassie, Lagat and Kenenisa Bekele) showing up to contest the next championship.
• Kenenisa Bekele had the previous distinction of being the youngest gold medallist when he, at the age of 23 years 272 days, placed first in the 3.000m two years ago in Moscow, running 7.39,32.
• Tariku Bekele set a record of note in that same race by becoming the youngest finalist at 19 years 50 days, by placing sixth in 7.47,67. Tariku now has layed claim to being both the youngest finalist of the 147 men who have made it to the start line as well as the youngest gold medallist.
• Together, Kenenisa Bekele (2006) and Tariku Bekele (2008) have now become the only brothers to win a championship, and the only family members to have won back-to-back men's 3.000m titles.
• Tariku Bekele is the only athlete to have run the closest non-winning time relative to his victory, with a mere 0,56 seconds between his previous performance in Moscow and his winning time in Valencia.
• Kenenisa Bekele, who has the current world indoor records at 2.000m (4.49,99), 2-mile (8.04,59) and 5.000m (12.49.60), has the fastest finishing 1.500m of the dynamic duo, closing out his masterfully-crafted race in Moscow with a 1.500m split of 3.36,5 to Tariku Bekele's 3.40 run at the week-end.
• Tariku Bekele has family honours in the 3.000m outdoors, however, owning Ethiopia's national junior record at 7.29,11 set two years ago in Rieti. Kenenisa Bekele held the previous honour by running 7.30,67 five years earlier in Bruxelles.
• Tariku Bekele's final 1.000m, covered in a hand-timed 2.22,5, however, is the fastest-ever recorded in a finishing kick, with brother Kenenisa's 2.23,33 the previous fastest in a much longer kick. El Guerrouj, who won the 2001 title (7.37,74) in Lisboa, closed out his race in 2.24,76.
• Tariku Bekele, who ran 8.04,83 in the 2-mile outdoors last season, and has a 12.53,81 best at 5.000m, benefitted from a slow opening kilometre of 2.48,58 followed by a 5.25,71 at the 2.000m mark; his first-half split was appromiately 4.08.
• Bekele's victory is closest in measurement to Saïd Aouita's 1989 title in Budapest, with the former 1.500m, mile, 2.000m, 3.000m and 5.000m world-record holder's race splitting 5.24,02 at the 2.000m mark (Frank O'Mara) and Aouita finishing with a 7.47,94 (4.02,5/3.46,4). Bekele finished with approximate splits of 4.07/3.40.
• Seven of the 13 champions have been 1.500m/mile specialists (two of them world record-holders at both distances, and one has been an NCAA 1.500m champion (O'Mara). However, three of the past four champions have now been longer-distance specialists who have demonstrated better endurance and sustained longer kicks than their counterparts have been able to muster.
• El Guerrouj (7.37,74) and O'Mara (7.41,14) are the only mile specialists who have a top-five winning time in the indoor championships.
• Tariku Bekele may separate himself from his brother if he is able to defend his title in two years when the nation of Qatar hosts the 2010 IAAF World Indoor Championships. Then again, in an Olympic year as this one, his brother may add to his legendary status by taking his second-consecutive 10.000m title, leaving Tariku Bekele in further want of his own identity.

IAAF World Indoor Championships
Winners:

1985: ..... 7.57,63 (João Campos)
1987: ..... 8.03,32 (Frank O'Mara)
1989: ..... 7.47,94 (Saïd Aouita)
1991: ..... 7.41,14 (Frank O'Mara)
1993: ..... 7.50,26 (Gennaro Di Napoli)
1995: ..... 7.50,89 (Gennaro Di Napoli)
1997: ..... 7.34,71 (Haile Gebrselassie)
1999: ..... 7.53,57 (Haile Gebrselassie)
2001: ..... 7.37,74 (Hicham El Guerrouj)
2003: ..... 7.40,97 (Haile Gebrselassie)
2004: ..... 7.56,34 (Bernard Lagat)
2006: ..... 7.39,32 (Kenenisa Bekele)
2008: ..... 7.47,28 (Tariku Bekele)

Photo Credit: BBC Athletics

Mottram (8.03,50) Wins Pre 2-Mile Classic

Story written by EPelle

Australian Craig Mottram, a 2007 IAAF World Championships 5.000m gold medal hope, won the Prefontaine Classic Grand Prix 2-mile yesterday evening - smashing nearly nine seconds off his previous personal best and Australian record, and in the process, clocking the sixth-fastest time ever in the distance, 8.03,50.

Mottram entered the meet after suffering a slight setback at the Reebok Grand Prix in New York last week (results link), finishing third in the mile (3.54,54 SB) to Americans Alan Webb (3.52,94) and Bernard Lagat (3.53,88), but bounced back in superb fashion in the 12-strong field Sunday, covering his mile splits in 4.04,0 and 3.59,5.

"It's a win and it is better than last week and better than three weeks ago and I will be a lot better in two months. I was strong today. I will take the fast time but it doesn't mean much come August; I will have to beat five or six more of them," he told the Register-Guard.

Mottram handed Ethiopia's Tariku Bekele (8.04,83) a spirited defeat in front of a standing-room only crowd at the University of Oregon's Hayward Field, which let out a loud roar when third-place finisher, American Matt Tegenkamp, crossed the line in 8.07,07 - setting an American record by sheering more than four seconds off of the two-year-old record national standard set at the 2005 Pre Classic. Free video of the race can be found here courtesy of NBC.

Bekele, who is the younger brother of 5.000m and 10.000m world-record holder Kenenisa Bekele, holds 7.29,11 3.000m and 12.53,81 5.000m personal bests - both Ethiopian national junior records, is 0-5 lifetime against Mottram. They've clashed twice at 5.000m (13.03,37-13.12,49 in Bislett in 2004; 13.32,96 - 13.34,76 at the 2005 World Championships), and the young Ethiopian has also been unsuccessful at beating Mottram indoors at the 2-mile distance, with Mottram winning the 2005 BIG Boston indoor Games in 8.26,54 to Bekele's 4th-place 8.27,56. Mottram also defeated the younger Bekele in their only 3.000m clash as well, with Mottram finishing third in the 2005 Zürich Weltklasse in 7.38,03 to Bekele's ninth-place 7.43,47.

Webb set the previous American record in finishing 2nd in the 2005 Pre Classic 2-mile to Kenya's Eliud Kipchoge, 8.07,68 to 8.11,48, but managed only a ninth-place finish (8.23,97) on Sunday.

Mottram lingered back in the middle of the pack for the first 1.320 yards of the eight-lap race right in front of Webb, but made a decisive move up behind Bekele and the two pace-makers in the race to hit a very good first mile split at a desirable pace (rabbits were asked to split 4.03).

Bekele and Mottram held tempo and command of the race, and made decisive moves at the beginning of the final lap, but Tegenkamp, who began making a long charge with three laps remaining - running just ahead of American Dathan Ritzenhein (8.11,74) - had launched into his own extended kick with 300m remaining.

Mottram passed Bekele on the backstraight with approximately 250m remaining and held a comfortable lead heading into the homestretch - where he began waiving to the crowd with 40m remaining. Neither Bekele nor Tegenkamp were able to gain on Mottram following his explosive kick.

Mottram, whose previous best was established in a victory over Kenya's Boniface Songok - 8.11,27 to 8.12,86 - at the 2005 Norwich Union Grand Prix in Sheffield, England (results link), holds seven track and road national Australian records, and appears to be in excellent form heading to the world championships to be contested in August in Osaka, Japan, where he is one of the favourites.

Mottram's 2-mile time equates to a 7.27,69 3.000m according to Track & Field News, with Bekele's new personal best equating to a 7.29,85, followed by Tegenkamp netting a 7.31,0 equivalent.

"It's too early to get too wound up about the world championships just yet," Mottram said to Australia's Herald Sun newspaper.

Indeed, the European season has not yet kicked off (the Oslo Golden League Meet is first on tap this Friday), yet Mottram is in excellent position heading into what promises to be an exciting year for the 2005 bronze medalist at 5.000m, and 2006 Commonwealth Games champion.

The world two-mile record - 7.58,61 - was set by Kenya's Daniel Komen in Hechtel, Belgium in 1998. Komen, the only man who has broken the eight-minute barrier, twice achieved the mark, with his second-best effort - 7.58,91 - set in a 1998 blow-out in Sydney, Australia. The only other person on the all-time in front of Mottram is Ethiopia's Haile Gebrselassie, the outer-worldly two-time Olympic and nine-time World Champion (indoors, outdoors, road), who ran 8.01,08 in Hengelo in 1997, and followed that effort up with great performances at Hengelo (8.01,86) and London (8.01,72) two seasons later.

Mottram is traveling back to his London base camp in preparation for his first European Circuit race on 27-June in Ostrava Golden Spike meeting, where he will contest the Emil Zatopek Memorial 5.000m (meet site), a favourite stop for early-season fast times and excellent racing. Kenya's Stephen Cherono holds the meet record in the event, running 12.48,81 there in 2003.

Mottram holds a lifetime best of 12.55,76 in the 5.000m, and has broken the magical 13.00-minute barrier a total of three times (12.56,13, 12.58,19).

The top-10 2-mile times outdoors:

1. Daniel Komen (KEN) 1997 7.58,61
2. Daniel Komen (KEN) 1998 7.58,91
3. Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1997 8.01,08
4. Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1999 8.01,72
5. Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1999 8.01,86
6. Craig Mottram (AUS) 2007 8.03,50
7. Daniel Komen (ETH) 1996 8.03,54
8. Tariku Bekele (ETH) 2007 8.04,53
9. Matt Tegenkamp (USA) 2007 8.07,07
10. Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 1995 8.07,46

Mottram's Personal Best Track Times:

• 1.500m: 3.33,97
• Mile: 3.48,98 (3.54,81 indoors)
  
• 2.000m: 4.50,76
  
• 3.000m: 7.32,19 (7.39,24 indoors)
  
• 2-Mile: 8.03,50 (8.26,54 indoors)
  
• 5.000m: 12.55,76
• 10.000m: 27.50,55

For a full-list of the all-time 2-milers, please go to www.alltime-athletics.com, or click this link here for immediate access to the list.

Bekele Opens 2007 in Winning Fashion

Story written by EPelle

Ethiopia's Kenenisa Bekele, winner of five consecutive IAAF World Cross Country Championships long- and short-course titles, obliterated his competition at the Event Scotland Edinburgh international Cross Country today, winning on the 9,3km course in 28.14.

Bekele, who has both sworn off and then verbally reconsidered competiting for any further accolades in the spring championships, defeated rival 10.000m runner Zersenay Tadesse Zersenay, the 2004 Olympic Bronze medalist, by 10 seconds.

Bekele's arch Kenyan rival Eliud Kipchoge, who, like Zersenay, became the first athletes to run under 27.00 over a 10km course in Spain two weeks ago, finished in third place, 37 seconds behind Bekele (full results).

According to a race description provided by onrunning.com (link), Bekele produced one of the most spectacular displays of running ever seen during a race at the elite level, when, with three laps remaining of the 9,3km course, he upped the ante and dropped his opponents - a move none were able to counter.

Ethiopian teammate Gelete Burka captured the women's 6,1km race in 23.25, nine seconds ahead of both Vivian Cheruiyot (2nd) and Benita Johnson, who finished with the bronze.

The reigning Olympic (2004) and World 10.000m (2003) champion extended his cross country winning streak to 26-straight since suffering his last defeat to Haile Gebrselassie in December 2001. He was pushed to the wire by Saif Saaeed Shaheen last year, when Bekele described himself as being tired, but was focused and prepared on this year's race.

"It was a good beginning to 2007," Bekele is quoted as stating by onrunning.com.

"I am very happy that I won my first race of the year.

"I expected it because of the training I have done."

Bekele, by far the most gifted cross country and long distance track athlete on the planet, stated yesterday that he lacks motivation to continue running in the world cross country championships.

"The motivation may not be there any more," he stated yesterday, according to The Herald (link).

"I don't know if I have the same hunger," he confided.

"That's why I won't do the world-cross again. I still want to improve my times, run fast on the track. I may try for some world records this year. I don't know where, or which one, either the 5000 or 10,000 metres. They are both my favourite events, but I think the 5000m record is harder."

However, IAAF post-race reports quote Bekele as stating he may consider running at the Cross Country World Championships if there is a new challenge.

Bekele’s manager, Jos Hermens, said that the 24-year-old Ethiopian is only 80 per cent fit, adding “he is a little bit chubby and could have been more prepared,” something one should possibly take with a grain of salt.

Bekele, who has broken 13.00-flat 13 times in his career, set the world 5.000m record of 12.37,35 in Hengelo nearly three years ago, swiping 2,01 seconds from Haile Gebrselassie's world and national record time of 12.39,36 set in Helsinki six years before that.

He first set the 10.000m world record of 26.20,31 in Ostrava in 2004, and eclipsed that with a mark of 26.17,53 one year later in Bruxelles.

Gebrselassie held the previous world record (26.22,75), a mark which he set in Hengelo in 1998.

The Herald quotes Bekele has stated that doubling up at either this August's world championships or next year's Olympic Games would be off the cards, citing that he'd prefer to race great in one race, rather than run two poor races.

Bekele was upstaged in the 2003 IAAF World 5.000m Championships in Paris after taking the 10.000m gold when Kipchoge (12.52,79) held off mile world-record holder Hicham El Guerrouj (12.52,83) by 0,04 seconds for the gold, with Bekele finishing with a bronze (12.53,12).

Bekele tried his hand at the double the following year in Athens, winning the 10.000m (27.05,10) ahead of teammate Sileshi Sihine (27.09,39) and Tadesse (27.22,57), but falling short to a reverse 1-3 world champs finish from El Guerrouj (13.14,39) and Kipchoge (13.15,10), running 13.14,59 to earn silver in a race which played into El Guerrouj's hand as a strong kicker.

Two years ago, running in his third major track championship, Bekele opted to contest the 10.000m only, narrowly edging out Sihine (27.08,87) and Kenyan Moses Mosop (27.08,96) by a total spread of 0,63 seconds. Bekele was tested to the limit and ran 27.08,33 - the 2nd-fastest winning time in meet history behind his 2003 triumph (26.49,57) - a race which he negative split under 13.00 to close out the 2nd 5.000m segment.

Perhaps it is high time for Bekele to rest during the spring months, and get in optimal athletics training for the busy summer ahead. He has demonstrated the capability to run hard and run fast following cross country training, and even snuck in a gold medal in the 3.000m at the 2006 IAAF World Indoor Championships to boot.

It shall be a marvel to see what Bekele can do in 2007 with his concentrations focussed specifically on the track rather than the hills.

Kenenisa Bekele was born 1982-13-June in Bekoji, Arsi Province, Ethiopia.

He holds personal bests of 3.33,08 (2006), 7.30,67 (2001), 12.37,35 (2004), 26.17,53 (2005) and 42.42 over 15km (2001).

9,3km Results (Courtesy IAAF):

Men’s Race (9.3km)1 K Bekele (ETH) 28:14; 2 Z Tadesse (ERI) 28:24; 3 E Kipchoge KEN) 28:51; 4 F Joseph (TAN) 28:52; 5 G Gebremariam (ETH) 29:00; 6 D Ritzenhein (USA) 29:02; 7 S Bairu (CAN) 30:34; 8 A Letherby (AUS) 30:35; 9 C Rooney (IRE) 30:43; 10 T Abyu (GBR) 30:51.

Bekele's achievements to date:

• 2006 1st African Championships in Athletics 5.000m
• 2006 1st IAAF Short Race World Cross Country Championships
• 2006 1st IAAF Long Race World Cross Country Championships
• 2006 1st IAAF World Indoor 3.000m
• 2005 1st IAAF Short Race World Cross Country Championships
• 2005 1st IAAF Long Race World Cross Country Championships
• 2005 1st IAAF World Track & Field Championships 10.000m
• 2004 1st IAAF Short Race World Cross Country Championships
• 2004 1st IAAF Long Race World Cross Country Championships
• 2004 1st Olympic Games 10,000m
• 2004 2nd Olympic Games 5.000m
• 2003 1st IAAF World Track & Field Championships 10.000m
• 2003 3rd IAAF World Track & Field Championships 5.000m
• 2003 1st IAAF World Short Race Cross Country Championships
• 2003 1st IAAF World Long Race Cross Country Championships
• 2002 1st IAAF World Short Race Cross Country Championships
• 2002 1st IAAF World Long Race Cross Country Championships
• 2001 1st IAAF World Junior Cross Country Championships

Lagat, Mottram Headline Millrose Fields

Story written by EPelle

Three-time American record-holder Bernard Lagat and Australian Craig Mottram, who holds six national records, will headline the Wanamaker Mile at 100th Millrose Games to be held at Madison Square Gardens on 2-February.

Lagat, a two-time Olympic 1.500m medalist and reigning USA 1.500m and 5.000m champion, set the American indoor mile (3.49,89) and 1.500m (3.33,34) records at the Powered by Tyson Invitational in Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA two years ago.

Lagat set his third American record, outdoors at 1.500m, with a time of 3 minutes 29,30 seconds at the 2005 Rieiti Grand Prix.

Lagat also owns the second-fastest American outdoor mile (3.48,38) and 5.000m (12.59,22) times recorded.

Steve Scott (3.47,69 - Oslo, 1982) and Bob Kennedy (12.58,21 - Zürich, 1996) hold the American mile and 5.000m records, respectively. Scott (3.51,8/1981) and Jeff Atkinson (3.38,12/1989) held the previous mile and 1.500m American indoor records.

Lagat has personal bests of 3.26,34 at 1.500m and 3.47,28 in the mile - times recorded prior to becoming an American citizen in 2004.

Lagat, seen above holding the 2005 Wanamaker Mile trophy (photo courtesy of Trackshark.com), will be seeking his fifth Wanamaker Mile victory, having won the 2005 edition in 3.56,85 in defeating Kenenisa Bekele, who was making his debut at the shorter distance.

If Lagat successfully defends his title, he will tie Irishman Marcus O’Sullivan for the third-most victories on the all-time Wanamaker Mile list, behind only Eamonn Coghlan (seven) and Glenn Cunningham (six). O'Sullivan holds the record for most sub-4 times recorded in the Wanamaker Mile, topping the list at 11.

Coghlan, who was the first man to break 3.50 indoors, running 3.49,78 in 1983 at the Meadowlands in New Jersey, USA - the fastest time ever recorded in the United States - won seven Wanamaker Mile titles (4.00,2 in 1977; 3.55,0 in 1979; 3.58,2 in 1980; 3.53,0 in 1981; 3.54,4 in 1983; 3.53,8 in 1985; and 3.55,9 in 1987). Coghlan also competed in three Olympic Games, and won the 5.000m (13.28,53) at the inaugural IAAF World Track & Field Championships in Helsinki.

Among Lagat's challengers will be Australian Craig Mottram, who will be making his Millrose Games debut, though he will not be making his first running appearance in New York.

Mottram was the 2005 IAAF World Championships bronze medalist at 5000m (13.32,96), the first non-African to win a medal at that distance in a major championship since 1987, when Coghlan, mentioned above, won his world championship gold.

Mottram is also a two-time IAAF World Cup winner at 3.000m, running 7.41,37 in Madrid in 2002, and upsetting Bekele for the victory in 2006 with a 7.32,19 - also an Australian Record.

Mottram first gained international track & field notoriety when he broke 13.00 over 5.000m, running an Australian (and Oceanic) record of 12.55,76 in London in 2004 - narrowly losing to Haile Gebrselassie (12.55,51 All-comers record).

Mottram has also been a force on the fields as well, having placed 11th, ninth, fifth and eighth in the IAAF World Cross Country Championships short-course races (in descending chronological order), and 22nd and 13th in the long course races.

Mottram owns national records at the mile (3.48,98/Oslo, 2005), 2.000m (4.50,76/Melbourne, 2006), 3.000m (7.32,19/Athens, 2006), 2-miles (8.11,27/Sheffield, 2005), 5.000m (12.55,76/London 2004) and 10km road running (27.39/Madrid, 2006).

Mottram is large in stature, measuring 1.88m, and may have a disadvantage trying to kick past lagat on the tight turns on the 11-lap track. However, Mottram has pushed the pace in championship races, so a break away attempt to try gapping Lagat in a highly-publicised invitational may not be out of the question.

The last time these two locked up head-to-head over the 1.760-yard distance which is the mile, Lagat set his name in the US history book (2nd all-time), and Mottram set a national record.

Mottram set a 10km road best - and Australian record - in Madrid at the San Silvestre Vallencana race six days ago, running 27.39 on a course slightly too downhill for IAAF record purposes. Though he set an all-time best, he suffered defeat to Kenya's Eliud Kipchoge (26.54) and Eritrea's Zersenay Tadesse (26.54), the first two athletes to ever break 27.00-flat on any course.

Mottram also had a 10-race 10km win-streak ended in the process.

The sparks may not fly as high during the Millrose Games Wanamaker mile, as this is neither peak nor championship time for either athlete. However, the excitement fans will gain by watching them lock head-to-head will be there, nonetheless!

Stay tuned for more of what promises to be an exciting Millrose Games.

Mottram's Personal Bests (IAAF):

• 1.500m: 3.33,97 Zürich 18 08 2006
• Mile: 3.48,98 Oslo 29 07 2005
• 2.000m: 4.50,76 Melbourne 09 03 2006
• 3.000m: 7.32,19 Athens 17 09 2006
• 2-Mile: 8.11,27 Sheffield 21 08 2005
• 5.000m: 12.55,76 London (CP) 30 07 2004
• 10.000m: 27.50,55 Melbourne 04 12 2003
• 10KM: 27.39 Madrid 31 12 2006

Lagat's Personal Bests (IAAF):

• 800m: 1.46,00 Berlin 10 08 2003
• 1.000m: 2.18,70 Sydney 14 09 2000
• 1.500m: 3.26,34 Bruxelles 24 08 2001
• Mile: 3.47,28 Rome 29 06 2001
• 2.000m: 4.55,49 Stockholm 30 07 1999
• 3.000m: 7.33,51 Monaco 18 08 2000
• 5.000m: 12.59,22 London (CP) 28 07 2006

Millrose Games Homepage

Mathematics Gone Wild

Story written by EPelle

Man must be smarter than a computer. God help us if he's not.

Scientific "studies" - many of which have been no more than a waste of time - have been abundant on what the capacities man can expect to reach in athletics.

Today, a new predictive analysis was introduced to the world, and Paula Radcliffe ought to beware.

Dutchman John Einmahl, a mathematecian and professor at Tilberg University in Germany, predicted that Radcliffe can expect to have her world record ultimately lowered by eight minutes 50 seconds in the future, though no date was provided as to when the miraculous breakthrough could occur.

"For a lot of athletes it is probably depressing when they are confronted with our extreme values," Professor Einmahl is quoted as stating. "But this is a very serious study -- the extreme theory as a part of mathematics and statistics is an accepted science."

The men, on the other hand, stand to stagnate within the near future, as Paul Tergat's 2003 marathon world record time of 2.04.55 - set in Berlin - should ultimately only be lowered by 49 more seconds. Haile Gebrselassie, who has made public his attempt to win the Beijing Marathon and set the world record within the next two years, may be the last person alive to ever etch his name into history.

Right.

Asafa Powell, meanwhile, stands to be followed by a long list of suitors or one incredibly wild freak of nature insofar as his world record - shared by a steroid-aided Justin Gatlin - should be lowered from 9,77 to 9,29.

Canadian Ben Johnson once stated that no human being could ever legally run 9,79-seconds for the 100m dash. His prediction is nearly true as the first under 9,80, Tim Montgomery, was found to be a drugs cheat, and his performances have been erased. Gatlin, the current co-world record-holder, has tested positive for steroids. That leaves Powell in rarified air.

Powell is a terrific specimen of an athlete, and runs smoother and easier than any current straight-dash sprinter on the circuit, but he will never run under 9,70 - even with a maximum allowable wind (+2,0 m/s).

Professor Einmahl computed - by studying world records in 14 disciplines and feeding the best marks of 1.546 male and 1.024 female athletes into a computer - that Michael Johnson's 200m world record - 19,32 - could lower to 18,63.

Nike athlete Xavier Carter, who ran the second-fastest 200m ever in this, his inagural season at the professional level, 19,63, has only one full second left to tick off before this prediction comes true. Fascinating stuff.

The professor apparently acknowledged that there is room for extraordinary performances that will turn his results upside down, so Geb may yet have hope to extend beyond 2.04.06. Mr. Einmahl said his field doesn't recognize the impossible, but accepts the unbelievable.

"Who would have thought Bob Beamon would jump 8.90 meters on Oct. 18, 1968?" he said.

What the good professor fails to state is that the mark came at a humid location at altitude - an aide which Track & Fields News differentiates when denoting records.

The Associated Press author was practical enough to state that Beamon's record was not touched for another 23 years. No athlete, including Beamon, himself, ever got within the same time zone as Beamon's 1968 Olympic Games mark set in Mexico City.

Mathematics and statistics can be a great deal of fun to twist and turn to see what athletes are capable of, but, without any brainwork being applied to the answers computed by the machines, one will wait an entire lifetime hoping a woman will run her first 10km of a marathon in just over 30.00, repeat this four more times, and then have enough energy left to run 2,2km more at that pace. Better yet, the lucky female capable of this feat will need to run 105 times around the track in 71,96 seconds/lap without stopping.

Jesus Dapena, an Indiana University biomechanics professor, said in June that there must be a limit to how fast man can run. He stated that a man will never run 100 meters in three seconds, for instance, but that limit can't be defined. Mr. Einmahl basis his assumptions on a predictive model a computer has generated.

Mr. Einmahl's facts and figures have been stated to have been included to study extreme stock market prices as well as the required height needed in dams to control huge floods, and he's said to have performed a study funded by the insurance field over the highest possible damage claims possible to file.

Stock markets may use his numbers as a boundary marker, and insurance carriers may touch base with him for redline values, but his analysis of athletics performances fails the grade in the human capacity course.

If - and when - you ever witness a female athlete who runs 20km in one hour, and says she can continue for another at the same pace, check to see that she is not hallucinating. If she insists, and is able to stay the course, you'll have to do the honarary thing and for EPO and other performance-enhancing drugs - including gene doping.

Alas, if she succeeds and, indeed, makes it to the finish line under 2.07.00, feel free to drop me a line. I'll be first in line at the Guiness Book of World's Records eating my shorts.

Further reading:

• Study in full